|
|
|
|
|
|
| . |
|
|
| . |
|
Indo-Gangetic Plains
|
|
|
|
| . |
|
The
Indo-Gangetic Plains in South Asia, encompass parts of Bangladesh,
India, Nepal, and Pakistan. This area constitutes one of the
most productive agricultural regions of the world, feeding many
more millions of people than its vast resident population. Indo-Gangetic
Plains is endowed with plenty of natural resources that include
deep productive soils, good quality surface and ground water
resources and climatic features that permit multiple cropping
and above all very forward looking farmers. The region can be
best described as the cradle of "Green Revolution"
of the 70s and 80s and despite rapid increases in population,
the production of food grains - mainly rice and wheat - has
kept pace with the demand and, together, these two crops now
account for more than 80% of the food grains production in the
region.
|
| . |
|
South
Asia's rice-wheat belt is home to 600 million people, approximately
two-thirds of whom are employed in Agriculture. Although production
and consumption statistics are not collected on the basis of
specific cropping patterns, it is estimated that between 150
and 275 million people consume rice and/or wheat produced in
rice-wheat cropping systems. In the past, agriculture represented
the main source of employment for landless laborers in rural
areas. More recently, urban industrial development and the attendant
employment opportunities have offered the prospect of a better
life in the cities, inducing many people to abandon rural villages
in search of urban jobs. In some areas this has resulted in
the labor available for agricultural work and an increase in
rural wage rates.
|
| . |
|
Of
late, however, there has been a significant slow down in the
growth rates of production and productivity. Adding to this
are the indications of weakening of natural resources base.
Land degradation and problems of increased incidence of pests,
diseases, and weeds are threatening the food security of the
region. Rapid expansion of urban areas, greater domestic demand
for non food grain commodities (fruits, vegetables, etc.), increased
opportunities being presented by commercialization of agriculture,
and higher economic returns of non-agricultural activities are
likely to accentuate the problems. This in turn will reduce
the available cropping land for rice and wheat, thus necessitating
productivity increases from a shrinking resource base. Increasing
productivity and profitability at the farm level while maintaining
and enhancing the quality of environment and resource base are
the key issues for sustaining this vital production system of
the region. Yield increase is the only way to enhance future
production.
|
| . |
|
|
A
third of the irrigated rice and half of the irrigated wheat
in South Asia come from the rice-wheat cropping system.
|
| . |
|
Under this system, farmers grow rice in the kharif
(monsoon) season and follow it with wheat in the Rabi/
(winter) season. Farmers use this system on nearly12 million
ha in South Asia, stretching over large areas of Pakistan, northern
India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. China has an additional 10 million
ha of rice-wheat area. Hundreds of millions of poor farm families
rely on this cropping system for a large share of their income
and employment. Technical changes introduced through the Green
Revolution led to a rapid expansion of the rice-wheat system
increased its productivity and farmers’ income, reduced food
costs for low-income consumers, generated employment for land-less
laborers, and indirectly stimulated rural small industry. The
widespread use of new rice and wheat technologies, often associated
with adoption of the rice-wheat system by the farmers, played
a leading role in the agricultural development in many parts
of South Asia. Despite its enormous accomplishments, the Green
Revolution is showing signs of fatigue. There are indications
that rice-wheat output will increasingly encounter difficulties
in keeping up with demand in South Asia. The two ominous signs
are:
|
|
|
|
Derived
income in the South Asian region depends mainly on agriculture
and agriculture as a percentage of GDP ranges from 42 (in Nepal)
to 26 (in Pakistan).
|
|
| . |
|
Meanwhile,
the performance of this sector still holds the key to improvement
in real incomes and living standards of the bulk of the region’s
population. The rice-wheat belt is home to more than 600 million
people of the region, two-thirds of whom are employed in agriculture
and it is estimated that approximately 240 million people consume
rice and/or wheat produced in rice-wheat cropping systems. Population
growth for South Asia as a whole currently exceeds 2% per year.
Even if this rates slows as predicted to around 1.8% per year,
the population in this belt is likely to exceed 850 million
by the year 2010. Income levels in the region are extremely
low. In 1995, the average annual per capita GNP in South Asia
ranged from US$ 200 in Nepal to US$ 460 in Pakistan (World Bank
Atlas, 1997). Regional food production must increase by 2.5%
annually to meet the demand of growing populations, raise their
incomes, and to generate employment opportunities. With currently
available germ plasm and technologies, productivity growth of
rice-wheat system is unlikely to exceed the current level of
about 2% per annum, i.e., below the annual rate of population
growth. Global demands for food continue to rise. No where is
the challenge greater than in South Asia where traditional rice-wheat
growing areas have already been depleted and there is little
scope for future expansion of these crops. It is expected that
solving the complex issues threatening the sustainability of
the rice-wheat cropping systems in South Asia will greatly enhance
poverty alleviation in the region, where 40% of the population
is living in poverty.
|
Depending
on the assumptions made about future rates of growth in demand
and supply, it is possible to come up with widely divergent
forecasts about food balances in South Asia. However, the most
likely scenario is that despite a gradual slowing of growth
in demand for cereals, food grain production in South Asia will
be hard pressed to keep pace with the growth in consumption
requirements. This is consistent with the projections made by
the International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
which forecasts a regional cereals deficit averaging
around 20-25 million tons per year by 2020 in South Asia.
|
| . |
Click
here
to see the table structure of Supply
and Demand Projections for Rice and Wheat, South Asia
illustrating
these points
|
|
.
|
|
The
true impact of resource degradation in the rice-wheat system
depends on the pace and extent of degradation, productivity
loss associated with these processes, and farmers’ adaptive
strategies for resource management. At present, little information
is available on these problems. The quantification of the degradation
parameters is exceedingly difficult. Nonetheless, the degradation
of soil and water resources must be taken seriously for several
reasons.
|
| . |
|
To
sum it all, there are indications that problems associated with
rice-wheat systems of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan
are posing a threat to this vital component of food security
in South Asia. Therefore, there is an urgent need to evolve
strategies to reverse the processes leading to declining productivity
and resource degradation in the Indo-Gangetic Plains.
|
|
